The views below are based on my soundings, readings and common sense. Responsibility my own:
- ESM banking licence: crisis would need to deteriorate significantly (threaten the core) before such a politically contentious and legally complex policy change is considered.
- Bear in mind German constitutional court ruling regarding ESM, continued disagreement regarding the necessary prerequisite of prudential banking supervision before another Spanish bail-out. And the increasing likelihood of a Greek exit from the EMU.
- Note the German finance ministry’s unambiguous reiteration of its resistance to ESM-related policy yesterday.
What will happen then:
- Draghi seems likelier to “talk” about an ESM banking licence at the press conference, but no more.
- Expect him to “stick to the script” staying within the ECB’s narrow mandate.
- Given the significant hurdles involved regarding the ESM, a “re-loading” of the SMP seems the most realistic short-term policy option available to the ECB.
But it needs a tweak.
- I’m sticking with the idea that LTROs are dead. We may see a further loosening of collateral conditions (e.g. through lower haircuts).