ECB Bullets To Shoot Down High Hopes [Sorry]

The views below are based on my soundings, readings and common sense. Responsibility my own:

  • ESM banking licence: crisis would need to deteriorate significantly (threaten the core) before such a politically contentious and legally complex policy change is considered.
  • Bear in mind German constitutional court ruling regarding ESM, continued disagreement regarding the necessary prerequisite of prudential banking supervision before another Spanish bail-out. And the increasing likelihood of a Greek exit from the EMU.
  • Note the German finance ministry’s unambiguous reiteration of its resistance to ESM-related policy yesterday.

What will happen then:

  • Draghi seems likelier to “talk” about an ESM banking licence at the press conference, but no more.
  • Expect him to “stick to the script” staying within the ECB’s narrow mandate.
  • Given the significant hurdles involved regarding the ESM, a “re-loading” of the SMP seems the most realistic short-term policy option available to the ECB.

But it needs a tweak.

  •  I’m sticking with the idea that LTROs are dead. We may see a further loosening of collateral conditions (e.g. through lower haircuts).

ThSM

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