This article is obsolete.
I’m not going to write anything in it that people in the market, in whichever direction they’re positioned, have not concluded six months ago or more.
You only have to look at volumes in the market for long-term Greek debt – which are miniscule on a day-to-day basis [and on some days actually nil] – to realize that involved parties barricaded-up for any potential storm a while ago.
CDS traders paint a similar picture: there are a few [literally a handful week-to-week] daredevils showing interest in the 5-year CDS.
But apart from that, there is no market for Greek debt to speak of.
Aside from being priced into the market, there’s little doubt that after a year of negative headlines, the issue is also seared into the minds of the wider public too.
So why am I bothering? Well, the answer is: mostly for my own benefit!
This story has several moving parts [which I’ve tried to boil down to essentials.]
Not to mention that potential dire outcomes from it still potentially have a sting in the tail which could cause financial pain far beyond the streets of Athens.
It’s easy to lose track.
But this mind map will help me stay across things. Perhaps [and I hope!] it will help you do the same.
To view the map directly, please click the ‘Memorandum’ button under my bio.