Let my try to convey, in my own brief, simplified way, a Tom DeMark-based idea on EUR/USD’s long-term prospects which appears to be something like la mode in parts of this parish right now.

We’ll use this chart to illustrate the idea.

Plus a couple of useful sites which I’ve been pointed to.

Provisos: apologies but this chart is a couple of days old. Still, that ought not to matter too much. The rate has been fairly stagnant during that time. Also, we are looking at long-term factors here, so overall the image is still valid for our purposes.

Secondly, what’s here is just the bare bones – and I admit, for experts and skilled operatives, there’s a risk these plodding steps could be laughable.

Even so, it’s not for absolute beginners – I’m assuming some knowledge, sorry.

[Hint: the sites, I mentioned….? See the hyper-links.]

But for the rest of us, I hope this could trigger some synapse activity…

Firstly, the chart depicts euro on bar 12 of a weekly sell countdown on TD Sequential.

The last time the indicator completed its signal [July 2008 sell and April 2009 buy] were major turning points for the euro.

The current countdown suggests 1.48s would produce a 13-count sell signal.

Additionally the chart indicates a qualified break of weekly TD Prop down momentum at 1.3900 would suggest the rate could head, possibly sharply, to TDST/TD Prop Exhaust at 1.2859/67. A close above 1.5141 over the next 3 months would force a re-evaluation.

The rate has been ailing today; and remains within its recent range. This has been what to potentially expect when the range breaks.

Enjoy.

ThSM