Tag Archives: Economic Forecast

Fed Decision – A Minority Report

The analogy sort of fits; and what put me in mind of it was the news this week that the FBI has commenced a project to create a hi-tech facial recognition database. We of course, are concerned about a different … Continue reading

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ECB Floats Yield Target Idea; U-Boats Launched

Late this morning the markets seem to have sobered up a bit following earlier barely fettered optimism about a Der Spiegel article over the weekend. It said: “The European Central Bank is considering setting limits on yields of euro area sovereign … Continue reading

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ECB Bullets To Shoot Down High Hopes [Sorry]

The views below are based on my soundings, readings and common sense. Responsibility my own: ESM banking licence: crisis would need to deteriorate significantly (threaten the core) before such a politically contentious and legally complex policy change is considered. Bear … Continue reading

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What Will The Fed Do? – Predictions from The Mile [and beyond]

There’s half an hour to go before the FOMC policy announcement, which will be followed by ‘The Ben Bernanke Show’ from 1815 GMT. You can Watch the Federal Reserve press conference with chairman Bernanke here:  http://www.ustream.tv/embed/4944768 Live video for mobile … Continue reading

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Negative Benchmark Omens – How Imminent is the Doom For Yields?

Discussion of whether [or when] there is likely to be a collapse in ‘core’ government debt prices appears to be increasing. One example Specifically in Europe, the question of when Bunds in general [and perhaps the Euro Bund Future contract … Continue reading

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Spain: the Pain the Bailout Forgot

EU leaders hailed it. Merkel & Co. gave their blessing to it. UK leaders nodded in mild approval to it. The IMF applauded it [from the sidelines.] And markets, of course, ‘sold’ it. It’s not that frequent for the political … Continue reading

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UK ‘Back in Technical Recession’ – Views From The Mile

Overall, yes, today’s ‘Flash’ UK GDP figures aren’t pretty.    But in perspective, the result is generally being taken to indicate a far less dire state of play for the UK’s economic state and performance than the headlines [data and … Continue reading

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Real Greek Risk & Fake Cassandras

 Meze JPMorgan still warning portentously of Greece’s ‘Ides of March’ As for the rest of us, we’re almost ‘over it’ already, though no one thinks a default will be an easy option JPMorgan has published a portentous note this morning. It’s … Continue reading

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ECB Will Still=’Extremely Cautious Behemoth’ In January

At this point, the ECB seems unlikely to produce any material changes in policy with its announcements on Thursday. ======================================================== T&C reminders: please see disclaimer at head of this blog. please note the peculiarities of my discursive style: I try … Continue reading

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Why More From Operation [Oliver] Twist May Not Be Enough

http://youtu.be/sZrgxHvNNUc The problem is, ‘more’ has been given, and yet ‘more’ still, and it has not proved to be enough, for markets or the real economy. What you will not find this afternoon, is an economist or anyone attentive and … Continue reading

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