Tag Archives: Euro zone

The Bankia Signal

Another Friday, another wait for economic news out of Spain. The results of the second part of an audit of Spain’s banks  – started in May and with particular reference to their funding needs – is likely to be released … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

ECB Bullets To Shoot Down High Hopes [Sorry]

The views below are based on my soundings, readings and common sense. Responsibility my own: ESM banking licence: crisis would need to deteriorate significantly (threaten the core) before such a politically contentious and legally complex policy change is considered. Bear … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Spain: the Pain the Bailout Forgot

EU leaders hailed it. Merkel & Co. gave their blessing to it. UK leaders nodded in mild approval to it. The IMF applauded it [from the sidelines.] And markets, of course, ‘sold’ it. It’s not that frequent for the political … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

LTROverdose Vs LTROver*

Part I Pre-load: Critical series of posts about LTRO Facts, figures, a few fatuous opinions and a bit of fun Part I touches on LTROs we’ve had so far and their apparent effects Another indecisive session for equity markets, albeit … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Real Greek Risk & Fake Cassandras

 Meze JPMorgan still warning portentously of Greece’s ‘Ides of March’ As for the rest of us, we’re almost ‘over it’ already, though no one thinks a default will be an easy option JPMorgan has published a portentous note this morning. It’s … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , ,

Staying Sharp At The Summit

Personally, I’m making an effort to remain alert as we go into the 2 millionth Summit [slight exaggeration] to discuss the euro-zone crisis. No matter how monotonous this newsflow has become though, it can still spring surprises – including for … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

ECB Will Still=’Extremely Cautious Behemoth’ In January

At this point, the ECB seems unlikely to produce any material changes in policy with its announcements on Thursday. ======================================================== T&C reminders: please see disclaimer at head of this blog. please note the peculiarities of my discursive style: I try … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Why Pillaging Alpha From Italy’s Yields Might Not Be So Easy

Espresso 7% rate on all debt would cost just EUR140B Italy projects it will collect c. EUR500 bln taxes in 2012 Italy’s Total Debt Scenario Relatively Tame Italian household debt is about 40% of GDP Risk/Scope for Financial Repression Some … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Overnight Bungee Practice

If Wednesday’s market moves in Europe are just half as volatile as they were in the relatively illiquid overnight conditions, it’ll be an ‘interesting’ day. Just after London’s close, the euro spiked circa 80 pts to 1.3760/65, as did other … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , ,

One Day, CHF and EUR, Will Be €1

With the world beset by all manner of crises right now, the Swiss franc is most likely on the closest to a vertical trajectory as we’ll ever see in our time. (We hope.)  And during such times, there there’s often … Continue reading

Posted in | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,