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Tag Archives: foreign exchange
Fed Decision – A Minority Report
The analogy sort of fits; and what put me in mind of it was the news this week that the FBI has commenced a project to create a hi-tech facial recognition database. We of course, are concerned about a different … Continue reading
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Tagged Bonds, central bank, dollar, Economic Forecast, Economic Policy, economics, federal reserve, foreign exchange, forex, macroeconomics, markets, monetary policy, sovereign debt, The City, The Square Mile
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ECB Bullets To Shoot Down High Hopes [Sorry]
The views below are based on my soundings, readings and common sense. Responsibility my own: ESM banking licence: crisis would need to deteriorate significantly (threaten the core) before such a politically contentious and legally complex policy change is considered. Bear … Continue reading
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Tagged Bonds, central bank, debt, dollar, Economic Forecast, Economic Policy, economics, EUR, Euro zone, Europe, European Central Bank, European Union, foreign exchange, forex, macroeconomics, sovereign debt, The City, The Square Mile, trading
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ECB Will Still=’Extremely Cautious Behemoth’ In January
At this point, the ECB seems unlikely to produce any material changes in policy with its announcements on Thursday. ======================================================== T&C reminders: please see disclaimer at head of this blog. please note the peculiarities of my discursive style: I try … Continue reading
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Tagged Economic Forecast, Economic Policy, economics, Euro zone, European Central Bank, European Union, fiscal policy, foreign exchange, interest rates, sovereign debt, Sovereign Debt Crisis
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Why More From Operation [Oliver] Twist May Not Be Enough
http://youtu.be/sZrgxHvNNUc The problem is, ‘more’ has been given, and yet ‘more’ still, and it has not proved to be enough, for markets or the real economy. What you will not find this afternoon, is an economist or anyone attentive and … Continue reading
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Tagged bernanke, dollar, Economic Forecast, Economic Policy, economics, federal reserve, foreign exchange, forex, monetary policy, operation twist, USD
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JPY can go OTP ahead of DPJ Contest
QuickJPYbullets: scope for USD/JPY to plumb/set historic lows with the most recent being 76.37. Overnight the pair reversed from a peak around 76.88 and is now at a weakly looking 76.53 triangle on hourly chart suggests 73.50 target! More sensible targets are 76.37 and … Continue reading
The Great SNB / NY Fed USD Swap Mystery
The Swiss National Bank has a USD swaps facility with The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.On behalf of a Swiss investment bank following a request, the SNB effectively applied for $200M-worth of dollars on Aug. 10 and the amount … Continue reading
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Tagged CHF, dollar, federal reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, finance, foreign exchange, forex, macroeconomics, markets, NY, SNB, swiss franc, Swiss National Bank, USD
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Expect short-term tumble, but no long-term USD collapse
What a weekend. I sense that many have been reluctant to get involved in the necessary task of trying to work out what the two almost seismic bits of financial news over the weekend mean. However many did get involved. … Continue reading
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Tagged aud, australian dollar, british pound, CHF, dollar, economics, equities, EUR, euro, foreign exchange, forex, GBP, markets, New Zealand dollar, NZD, risk, s&p, standard & poor's, sterling, stocks, Swiss france, USD
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Raise The Roof, It’s Vacation Time
Today I spoke with an economist who owns and heads an independent, forecasting boutique with many large enterprises, institutions and even governments of small countries as clients. Even with such a weighty reputation, he has a mild reputation, in informal … Continue reading
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Tagged dollar, Economic Policy, economics, foreign exchange, forex, Geithner, government, house of congress, macroeconomics, Obama, US, US Government, USD, Washington
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One Day, CHF and EUR, Will Be €1
With the world beset by all manner of crises right now, the Swiss franc is most likely on the closest to a vertical trajectory as we’ll ever see in our time. (We hope.) And during such times, there there’s often … Continue reading
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Tagged CHF, economics, EUR, Euro zone, European Central Bank, European Union, foreign exchange, forex, risk, SMI, sovereign, sovereign credit spread, sovereign debt, Sovereign Debt Crisis, stock markets, stocks, Swiss Market Index, Switzerland
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Deutsche Bank could FAIL, strictly speaking
Deutsche Bank: solid as a Black Forest oak. But could it fail stress tests? The idea that it might outright or nearly fail the EU tests is gathering pace and adding a small chill to European markets right now. The results are … Continue reading
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Tagged Basel II, Basel III, cds, debt, derivatives, Deutsche Bank, EUR, foreign exchange, Germany, markets, regulation, sovereign, sovereign credit spread, sovereign debt, Sovereign Debt Crisis, stocks, USD
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