Tag Archives: macroeconomics

Fed Decision – A Minority Report

The analogy sort of fits; and what put me in mind of it was the news this week that the FBI has commenced a project to create a hi-tech facial recognition database. We of course, are concerned about a different … Continue reading

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ECB Floats Yield Target Idea; U-Boats Launched

Late this morning the markets seem to have sobered up a bit following earlier barely fettered optimism about a Der Spiegel article over the weekend. It said: “The European Central Bank is considering setting limits on yields of euro area sovereign … Continue reading

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ECB Bullets To Shoot Down High Hopes [Sorry]

The views below are based on my soundings, readings and common sense. Responsibility my own: ESM banking licence: crisis would need to deteriorate significantly (threaten the core) before such a politically contentious and legally complex policy change is considered. Bear … Continue reading

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What Will The Fed Do? – Predictions from The Mile [and beyond]

There’s half an hour to go before the FOMC policy announcement, which will be followed by ‘The Ben Bernanke Show’ from 1815 GMT. You can Watch the Federal Reserve press conference with chairman Bernanke here:  http://www.ustream.tv/embed/4944768 Live video for mobile … Continue reading

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Negative Benchmark Omens – How Imminent is the Doom For Yields?

Discussion of whether [or when] there is likely to be a collapse in ‘core’ government debt prices appears to be increasing. One example Specifically in Europe, the question of when Bunds in general [and perhaps the Euro Bund Future contract … Continue reading

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Spain: the Pain the Bailout Forgot

EU leaders hailed it. Merkel & Co. gave their blessing to it. UK leaders nodded in mild approval to it. The IMF applauded it [from the sidelines.] And markets, of course, ‘sold’ it. It’s not that frequent for the political … Continue reading

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LTROverdose Vs LTROver*

Part I Pre-load: Critical series of posts about LTRO Facts, figures, a few fatuous opinions and a bit of fun Part I touches on LTROs we’ve had so far and their apparent effects Another indecisive session for equity markets, albeit … Continue reading

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Echos from the Hole

Quick expectation points from 3 economists at large investment banks whom we expect to be attending the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Symposium: “We suspect that the Fed is likely to outline a range of potential policy actions that may include the … Continue reading

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The Great SNB / NY Fed USD Swap Mystery

The Swiss National Bank has a USD swaps facility with The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.On behalf of a Swiss investment bank following a request, the SNB effectively applied for $200M-worth of dollars on Aug. 10 and the amount … Continue reading

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Raise The Roof, It’s Vacation Time

Today I spoke with an economist who owns and heads an independent, forecasting boutique with many large enterprises, institutions and even governments of small countries as clients.  Even with such a weighty reputation, he has a mild reputation, in informal … Continue reading

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